By Uffe B. Kjærulff, Anders L. Madsen
Bayesian Networks and impression Diagrams: A advisor to development and research, moment Edition, offers a accomplished consultant for practitioners who desire to comprehend, build, and research clever platforms for choice help in line with probabilistic networks. This new version comprises six new sections, as well as fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. meant essentially for practitioners, this ebook doesn't require refined mathematical talents or deep knowing of the underlying conception and techniques nor does it speak about substitute applied sciences for reasoning lower than uncertainty. the speculation and strategies provided are illustrated via greater than one hundred forty examples, and workouts are incorporated for the reader to ascertain his or her point of figuring out. The concepts and strategies awarded for wisdom elicitation, version building and verification, modeling strategies and methods, studying types from information, and analyses of versions have all been constructed and subtle at the foundation of various classes that the authors have held for practitioners around the world.
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Additional info for Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis
In a rule-based system, we would need dedicated rules for taking care of intercausal reasoning. 5 The Importance of Correct Modeling of Causality It is a common modeling mistake to let arrows point from effect to cause, leading to faulty statements of (conditional) dependence and independence and, consequently, faulty inference. For example, in the “Burglary or Earthquake” example on page 25 one might put a directed link from W (Watson calls) to A (Alarm) because the fact that Dr. Watson makes a phone call to Mr.
4 Serial connection (causal chain) with no hard evidence on Alarm. Evidence on Burglary will affect our belief about the state of Watson calls and vice versa Burglary Alarm " Watson calls Fig. 5 Serial connection (causal chain) with hard evidence on Alarm. Evidence on Burglary will have no affect on our belief about the state of Watson calls and vice versa So, in conclusion, as long as we do not know the state of Alarm for sure, information about either Burglary or Watson calls will influence our belief on the state of the other variable.
Then evidence about Burglary will make us update our belief about the state of Alarm, which in turn will make us update our belief about the state of Watson calls. The opposite is also true: If we receive information about the state of Watson calls, that will influence our belief about the state of Alarm, which in turn will influence our belief about Burglary. 5 Flow of Information in Causal Networks Burglary 27 Alarm Watson calls Fig. 4 Serial connection (causal chain) with no hard evidence on Alarm.
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis by Uffe B. Kjærulff, Anders L. Madsen