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By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

ISBN-10: 030915183X

ISBN-13: 9780309151832

Extra exact forecasts of weather stipulations through the years classes of weeks to a couple years may well support humans plan agricultural actions, mitigate drought, and deal with power assets, among different actions; even though, present forecast platforms have restricted skill on those time- scales. types for such weather forecasts needs to bear in mind complicated interactions one of the ocean, surroundings, and land floor. Such methods may be tricky to symbolize realistically. to enhance the standard of forecasts, this publication makes strategies concerning the improvement of the instruments utilized in forecasting and approximately particular learn objectives for bettering realizing of resources of predictability. to enhance the accessibility of those forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this ebook additionally indicates most sensible practices to enhance how forecasts are made and disseminated.

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Extra info for Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Sample text

In addition, realistic expectations for the speed and extent of improvements are discussed. Chapter 6 presents the committee’s recommendations and some remarks on their implementation. 2 Climate Prediction This part of the report begins by reviewing the concept of predictability, starting with a summary of the historical background for climate prediction. Lorenz’s work on weather prediction in the 1960s and 1970s is a foundation for present efforts. Progress in the 1980s extended prediction timescales, exploiting improved observational awareness of ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific and its associated teleconnections.

Edu/yotc). Stratosphere The stratospheric aspects of ISI prediction can only be captured by models that properly simulate stratospheric variability. Thus far, the stratosphere’s potential to improve ISI forecasts is largely untapped. To take advantage of this predictability source, it is essential that models used for seasonal forecasting simulate the intense, rapid shifts in the stratospheric circulation, as well as the downward propagation of circulation anomalies through the stratosphere. In addition, models need to be able to simulate the poorly understood connections between lower stratospheric and tropospheric circulations.

Teleconnections illustrate how interaction among the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface can “transmit” predictability in one region to another remote region. , the strength and location of the mid-latitude jet stream) interact with anomalous convection in the tropical Pacific. 3). Thus, predictions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature due to ENSO can be exploited to predict air temperature anomalies in some continental regions on the time scales of months to seasons. For air temperature, this teleconnection pattern offers enhanced predictability compared to memory alone, which would only be useful for minutes to hours.

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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability


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