By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson
Uncertainty research is a key element of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised through the authors during this quantity, and the function that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. assurance comprises: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock ways, compliance and verification matters, and the position of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.
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Additional resources for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading
Uncertainties in the Finnish greenhouse gas emission inventory. Environmental Science and Policy, 7, 87–98. , & Jonas, M. (2007). Compliance and emissions trading under Kyoto Protocol: Rules for highly uncertain inventories (in press). , & Jonas, M. (2007). Uncertainties of the regional terrestrial biota full carbon account: A systems analysis (in press). , & Obersteiner, M. (2000). Full carbon account for Russia. 1007/s11267-006-9118-2 Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories M.
Thus, both approaches increase the confidence that we can have in our global emissions estimates, by adjusting the estimated emissions to account for uncertainty. They also provide an incentive for countries to reduce the uncertainty of their emissions estimates over time, in order to reduce the magnitude of the adjustment and so move estimated emissions closer to the nominal commitment level. Which approach is more stringent? 04 a Emission reductions for compliance assumed to be 7% below baseline level.
The amount of adjustment should, ideally, reflect the uncertainty of the estimate and increase the probability that a country’s actual emissions accord with the country’s commitment. Alternatively, the emissions estimate for the base year could be adjusted downward to account for uncertainty. Either type of adjustment would increase the extent to which a country would need to reduce its estimated emissions in order to be in compliance. For purposes of this discussion, we make two assumptions about uncertainty adjustments for compliance purposes: (1) that the approach taken to the adjustment depends on the environmental goal for which it is undertaken; and (2) that the means of adjustment should employ a statistically valid method.
Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading by Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson